Small Business Cash Flow Trends

93% of small businesses expect growth as AI delivers measurable results

CHICAGO, Nov. 3, 2026 /PRNewswire/ — Ninety-three percent of small business owners expect growth over the next year, and 68% are on track to meet or beat their 2026 profit plan, according to the latest Small Business Cash Flow Trend Report from OnDeck, a market leader in small business lending, and Ocrolus, an AI workflow and cash flow analytics platform for lenders.

Growth Expectations

Small business confidence held in Q3 2026, with 93% of owners anticipating moderate to significant growth over the next year, continuing a steady trend over the last year. Two-thirds of owners (66%) expect moderate growth and more than a quarter (27%) expect significant growth. The September 2026 NFIB Small Business Economic Trends report found a similar tilt toward stronger sales, with a net 9% of owners expecting higher real sales volumes over the next three months, up three points from August.

Expectations for growth are widespread across industries. Construction (96%, a series high for the industry), Transportation and Warehousing (95%) and Accommodation and Food Services (94%) lead, with more than nine in 10 owners in each expecting growth. Owners’ year-end outlook for their own businesses reinforces these expectations: 68% expect to meet or exceed their 2026 profit plan, continuing a steady trend through 2026.

About one in three owners (34%) plan to add headcount in the next six months, compared with 35% in Q2 and 38% in Q1. The broader market, as reported in the U.S. Chamber of Commerce Small Business Index, also indicates that 36% of owners expect to add staff in the coming year. Healthcare and Social Assistance has the strongest hiring plans, with 46% of owners planning to add staff — up from 42% in Q2 — followed by Manufacturing (35%) and Professional and Technical Services (34%). Finding qualified candidates (31%) and managing labor costs (23%) are the main staffing challenges. NFIB’s September report points the same way, with 45% of owners reporting few or no qualified applicants for open positions and 26% naming labor quality or availability as their single most important problem, the top issue for a third straight month.

Top Challenges

As in Q2, small business owners cite inflation (36%) as the lead concern. Cash flow has eased for a second straight quarter to 28% (31% in Q2, 30% in Q1). The NFIB September report also found elevated concern about inflation, cited by 20% of owners as their single most important problem, up four points from August and above the historical average of 7% (second only to labor quality, cited by 26%).

Broken out by industry, the picture is more mixed. Inflation is the top concern in five of the seven industries tracked, with Transportation and Warehousing (49%) and Accommodation and Food Services (45%) reporting the highest levels. Construction, Professional and Technical Services, and Retail Trade each moved back to inflation from cash flow, which led in all three in Q2. Cash flow remains the top concern in Healthcare and Social Assistance and Manufacturing (35% each), though Manufacturing’s cash flow concern eased from 48% in Q2. Retail Trade is nearly split between inflation (35%) and cash flow (33%).

Despite inflation worries, revenue generally kept pace with expenses in most industries in Q3. As shown in the Ocrolus chart above, revenue-to-expense ratios were steady to higher in Q3 compared with Q2, with the all-industries ratio holding above 100%. Transportation & Warehousing and Construction posted the largest gains, and Accommodation & Food Services and Retail Trade edged up. Transportation & Warehousing shows the most consistent operating performance, holding above 101% in each of the last five quarters.

Lender Preference

Three in four (75%) small business owners bypassed traditional banks in Q3, consistent with Q2. Owners of businesses that have operated 16 years or more (78%) reported the highest rate of bypassing banks. Paperwork remains the leading reason, cited by 47% of those who did not apply to a bank, followed by doubts about qualifying (28%) and an unclear application process (20%). Among the 25% who applied to a bank first, denial (38%) was the most common reason for turning to a non-bank lender, with a difficult application process (32%) and a long wait for a decision (31%) close behind.

Cash flow and everyday operating needs remain the main reasons owners seek capital. Increasing cash flow and covering normal business expenses were each cited by 35% of owners in Q3, followed by supporting business expansion (31%) — the top reasons for the ninth consecutive quarter. Equipment purchases or repairs rose to 25% from 22% in Q2 and 26% cited debt consolidation. That fits the Ocrolus cash flow picture, where revenue-to-expense held just above 100%. Owners leverage working capital to fund day-to-day operations when revenue and expenses are out of sync, and to invest in expansion.

Business owners’ use of loan inflow varies by industry. Inventory drives Retail Trade, where 62% cite it (59% in Q2) compared with 17% across all industries; it is also a leading reason in Manufacturing (41%). Transportation and Warehousing owners are the most likely to seek funds for equipment purchases or repairs (48% compared with 25% overall) and in Construction 42% cite covering delayed customer payments, compared with 27% overall. Healthcare and Social Assistance owners, who report the strongest hiring plans (46%), are the most likely to seek capital to hire or train staff (16%, compared with 12% overall), and 36% cite business expansion.

AI Adoption

AI use among small businesses held at 61% in Q3, consistent with Q2 and up nine points from a year ago (52%). With AI adoption holding steady, the story is shifting from whether owners use AI to the impact it has on the business. Among users, 90% reported a positive impact, with improved marketing performance and fewer errors as the most-cited benefits (39% each).

For the fourth consecutive quarter, Professional and Technical Services reports the highest AI adoption among industries in Q3 (73%). The industry is among the highest reporting a positive impact at 94%; 44% of those cite improved productivity as a measurable benefit (32% overall). It also has the highest share of owners that are planning to increase AI investment over the next six months (42% compared with 33% overall).

Runners up for AI use are Accommodation and Food Services (63%) and Healthcare and Social Assistance (61%), while adoption is lowest in Transportation and Warehousing (47%) and Construction (51%). The benefits owners cite also differ by industry: 49% of Retail Trade users who report a benefit point to improved marketing performance and 47% in Healthcare and Social Assistance point to fewer errors or less rework.

Cash Flow Resilience

The median monthly revenue of applicants held steady over the long term, as Ocrolus cash flow data shows, with month-to-month variations like the 6% increase in quarterly median monthly revenue from Q2 to Q3. Expenses also rose by over 5%, keeping the revenue-to-expense ratio above 100%, in line with Q2. Credits into business accounts increased (+6% QoQ) and remained balanced against debits (99.95%), indicating that cash flow held steady as revenue recovered.

Revenue rose from Q2 in four of the seven charted industries: Transportation and Warehousing (+10%), Retail Trade (+9%), Accommodation and Food Services (+9%) and Construction (+6%). All four are also above their levels from a year ago.

Payroll outflows rose 10% from last quarter, consistent with Q2 survey findings that 35% of business owners reported plans to add employees over the next six months.

Most owners maintain a working capital fund, with 71% reporting they have at least one month of operating expenses in cash, in line with 70% from a year ago. To manage cash flow, survey respondents report the highest reliance on a business line of credit (57%), delaying payment to themselves or family (50%) and making only the minimum payment on credit cards (38%). These have been the top three approaches for nine consecutive quarters. That consistency suggests these tactics are a routine part of managing small business cash flow rather than a short-term response.

Customer demand is front of mind for small business owners. Seasonal demand (43%) and consumer spending trends (34%) are among the top factors shaping business strategy over the next year.

“Small business owners are carrying real momentum into the end of the year, and they’re keeping their customers at the center of their plans,” said Jim Granat, Co-President of Small Business Lending at Enova. “Seasonal demand and consumer spending are among the biggest factors guiding their strategy, and with confidence holding steady, they’re planning ahead for the growth they expect. At OnDeck, we’re focused on making it easier for small business owners to say yes to those opportunities, including through the automated approval process we recently launched.”

“The cash flow data shows small businesses operating from a position of strength,” said David Snitkof, General Manager of Small Business at Ocrolus. “Revenue rebounded and kept pace with expenses, and owners continue to look beyond traditional banks as they fund growth.”

The report is based on responses from 860 small businesses with working capital loans and over 3.95 million small business applications for working capital financing during the past 15 months. The nationwide survey was completed between September 16-28, 2026. For more information and complete survey results, please visit ondeck.com/small-business-trends.

About OnDeck®

OnDeck®, part of Enova International, is the proven leader in transparent and responsible online lending to small businesses. Founded in 2006, the company pioneered the use of data analytics and digital technology to make real-time lending decisions and deliver capital rapidly to small businesses online. Today, OnDeck offers a wide range of term loans and lines of credit customized for the needs of small business owners. OnDeck has provided loans to customers in 900 different industries nationwide. For more information, visit www.ondeck.com.

About Enova

Enova International (NYSE: ENVA) is a leading online financial services company that serves small businesses and consumers who are underserved by traditional banks. For over 20 years, Enova has provided over $74 billion in loans and financing to more than 16 million customers by offering a suite of market-leading products powered by the company’s world-class analytics, machine learning algorithms and proprietary technology. You can learn more about the company and its portfolio of businesses at www.enova.com.

About Ocrolus

Ocrolus is a vertical AI workflow and analytics platform that transforms financial documents and digital data into regulatory-grade decision intelligence. Purpose-built for lending since 2016, the platform analyzes roughly 750,000 credit applications each month with industry-leading accuracy — enabling financial institutions to make faster, more confident credit decisions. Ocrolus goes beyond data extraction to deliver audit-ready cash flow and income analytics and fraud detection across a wide variety of document types, including bank statements, pay stubs and tax forms. Trusted by over 400 customers, Ocrolus is the engine of modern credit underwriting. To learn more, visit Ocrolus.com.