Growing concerns about the U.S. political environment
CHICAGO, IL–(Marketwired – June 01, 2016) – Following three months of solid growth, the Spectrem Affluent Investor Confidence indices declined in May, according to Spectrem Group’s High Net Worth Insights newsletter.
The May Spectrem Millionaire Investor Confidence Index (SMICI®) dropped six points to 5, while the Spectrem Affluent Investor Confidence Index (SAICI®) fell four points to 0.
The indices are down ten points and eight points, respectively, from their levels one year ago.
The monthly indices, compiled by Spectrem Group, a market research and consulting firm specializing in the affluent and retirement markets, measure changes in investing sentiment among the 16.3MM households in America with more than $500,000 of investable assets (SAICI), and those with $1MM or more (SMICI).
This month’s survey was fielded between May 19-25.
The Spectrem Affluent Household Outlook, a driver of the Spectrem Affluent Investor Confidence Indices, rose slightly in May.
“A more cautious investor mindset, coupled with a slight rise in the Spectrem Affluent Household Outlook, indicates that Affluent investors remain slightly more optimistic about longer-term prospects than the next few months,” said George H. Walper, Jr., president of Spectrem Group.
Charts, including a deeper analysis of the Index and its methodology are available upon request.
Additional insights include:
The Spectrem Investor Confidence Indices Decline in May
Rising Concerns About U.S. Political Environment Impact Sentiment*
Spectrem Affluent Investor Confidence Index®
Spectrem Millionaire Investor Confidence Index®
Index range: -31 to -51, Bearish; -11 to -30, Mildly Bearish; 10 to -10, Neutral; 11 to 30, Mildly Bullish; 31 to 51, Bullish.
*Excerpt from ‘Rising Concerns About U.S. Political Environment
- Between Donald Trump’s unprecedented ascendancy as the presumptive Republican nominee for President and the increasingly divisive race between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders for the Democrat nomination, election news stories are having the greatest impact on the economic outlook of Affluent investors, a May Spectrem Group survey finds.
Half of Affluent respondents said that news stories about the political environment are most affecting their economic outlook. This is up from 22 percent from last February, when this survey question was last asked.
Stories about this tumultuous president campaign (with five months still to go) are dominating the news cycle. This survey was fielded between May 19-25. On May 26, the Associated Press reported that Trump had enough delegates to clinch the Republican nomination. In the weeks prior, news stories focused on reported disunity in the party over this prospect. Paul Ryan, Speaker of the House of Representatives, had a widely-covered meeting with Trump, after which he continued to withhold his endorsement. On the Democratic side, Bernie Sanders vowed last month to stay in the race “until the last vote is counted.” On the last day that this survey was fielded, Clinton faced renewed scrutiny and criticism following the release of an inspector general report that determined she broke State Department rules by using a personal server for her emails.
The next largest percentage of Affluent investors (12 percent; up from 3 percent last February) cite news stories about interest rates increases as those having the most impact on their economic outlook. Last month, the release of the April Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting minutes which showed that the Fed is open to raising interest rates as soon as this month, sparked a week of market volatility.
When asked which news stories were most affecting their economic outlook, just 6 percent said Stock Market Condtions and less than 5 percent said percent said International Problems (4 percent; down from 17 percent three months ago) and the Economy, Unemployment, Oil prices, and Terrorism (3 percent each). — READ MORE —
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