politics & markets

Innovative Securities: Trump Remained a Promise

Understanding the Metrics of Success

May 3, 2017 /PRNewswire/ — “Donald Trump’s first 14 weeks (appr. 100 days) as a president probably wasn’t as successful as he planned”, concludes Innovative Securities new analyses.

The company studied the performance of the biggest US companies and found that Trump brought minor growth, missed to achieve great success and faces a hard future.

Wall Street reacted surprisingly well to Donald Trump‘s triumph in November, stocks were bullish, reminds Innovative Securities. But how did markets act during his first 100 days? To answer this question, the company studied how S&P 500 performed during the first 14 weeks of Trump’s presidency compared to other presidents’ performance.

But how did markets act during his first 100 days?

New presidents often face hard times, Obama, for example, faced with the financial crisis of 2008/2009 and Bush struggled with 9/11 and economic depression in the first years of 2000’s.

See chart illustrating the S&P history during first 100 days of past US Presidents.

Trump: Middle of the Road

Analysing the last six presidents of the US, Innovative Securities found that “Donald Trump’s performance is in the middle according to the performance of S&P 500”. During his first 14 weeks, the index climbed 4.53% and it managed to achieve this without any big fall in the prices. What’s more, between October 2016 and March 2017 S&P 500 had a historical, 109-day long soar which hasn’t happened since 1995 and wasn’t affected neither by the elections nor by the inauguration, adds Innovative Securities.

But there are other interesting aspects, believes the company. On the one hand, after Trump’s win the market expected the construction industry to have a great time as the president planned on rebuilding the infrastructure. Prices started to lift, too. On the other hand, many believed that IT companies may face a hard time as Trump attacked them during his campaign. Against all odds, big IT companies did better than construction, engineering and steel production companies.
See chart illustrating the performance of IT and construction companies during Trump’s first 100 days.

All this leads the company to believe that although after the elections markets were positive, the first 100 days are a time of corrections. As Trump faced several difficulties – like strong fight against travel ban, “Trumpcare’s” failure and the postponing of ambitious tax reforms, as it was admitted by the US Treasury secretary to the Financial Times – markets became less optimistic.

In the future, concludes Innovative Securities, we will have to see if he learns to strike deals or not and if he will be able to achieve his plans. Until then, he remains only a promise to many.